Iraq : Who Is The Winner?

Let us assume that (a) Maliki's attempt to seek a manual recount of the votes in Iraq fails and (b) the projected results show the result as it will be finally determined. Will Allawi or Maliki then be in the best position to form a Government?

As Allawi has gained two more seats than Maliki, he is given the first official shot at cobbling a majority together. But he has a hard task to do this. For Maliki would seem to have 49.5% of the seats within his control even before the manovering starts. These are made up of his own groups 89 seats, the 70 seats which went to the Islamist National Iraqi Alliance and the 2 seats of the Islamic Group of Kurdistan who are also Islamist. That would leave him only 2 seats short of a minimal overall majority.

To triumph, Allawi needs the following support to add to that of 91 seats he holds. 43 Kurdish Alliance, 8 Movement for Change (a newly emerged Kurdish group who are an opposition to the Kurdish Alliance), 6 Iraqi Accord Front (Sunni), 4 Unity Alliance of Iraq (Secular), 4 Kurdistan Islamic Union (who at least work closely with the Kurdish Alliance) and 8 from the seats provided for Minority Groups (five of whom are Christians).

There are, of course, other possibilities. Either Maliki or Allawi or both of them could drop out of the race to let someone else in to form a Government; or they could come together in a coalition holding between them 55.4% of the seats. But which one would hold the top job?

My details are based on this source and its links - as they stand at this moment.

Also see this detailed analysis.

UPDATE 30 March : See Musings On Iraq.