Judging The Current Situation In Iraq

Blacktriangle has posted a valuable piece on the pros and cons of the current situation in Iraq.

Some Hopeful Signs

I give below my own list of hopeful signs, numbers of which are repeats from items I have recently posted.

1. The number of killings seems to be in decline.

2. In areas children are returning to school.

3. Oil production and its exports are increasing.

4. Numbers of those who fled from Iraq have now returned. Although this seems to be a more accurate picture.

5. Sunni Militia have moved to help bring more safety to the Baghdad area.

6. Sunni politicians are taking up their parliamentary seats after their boycott.

But We Can't Get Carried Away

There is, of course, another terrible side to this coin -

1. This is a partial list about yesterday's violence.

2. There are serious signs that the situation in the Basra area has worsened.

3. Turkey has entered Northern Iraq in pursuit of rebel Kurdish paramilitary forces. This has the danger of bringing instability to Iraq's most hopeful area.

4. Iraqi refugees in (for instance)the Lebanon face serious problems, which explains why some return to Iraq.

5 Even a decline in the level of violence builds on top of whichever of these scenarios you accept.

6. Above all there is the condition of the Iraqi people - listen here.

P.S. And now we have this.